When Beijing pulls the trigger

As predicted, Beijing has outlined a strategy of “conflict for all” and “economic peace for all” in the trade-tariff war with Washington. The escalation of the Trump administration’s actions against Beijing in the tariff war has prompted an unprecedented and significant warning from the Chinese.

Accordingly, China’s Ministry of Commerce warned that countries colluding with the U.S. in the trade war to the detriment of Beijing’s interests will face “decisive and reciprocal measures” from China. The ministry referred to such countries as actors that acquiesce to the U.S. in its trade war with China. The matter is clear: from the perspective of Chinese authorities, any country reaching an agreement with the U.S. in trade negotiations that harms Beijing will face China’s resolute and reciprocal actions.

During Trump’s first presidency, the U.S.-China economic conflict was considered a linear dispute, with Washington and Beijing positioned at opposite ends of a line drawn by Trump. However, now both main actors in the trade war (the U.S. and China) speak of a multifaceted and expansive structure in which countries must choose sides in the conflict. Consequently, economic neutrality in the Washington-Beijing trade war will soon lose its meaning.

The remarks by the spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Commerce were in response to recent news reports suggesting that Donald Trump intends to pressure certain countries to limit their trade relations with China in exchange for tariff exemptions. For instance, J.D. Vance, U.S. Vice President, during a recent visit to India, urged New Delhi to support Washington’s broader and even temporary policies in the tariff war with China.

In disputes involving the U.S., Panama, and Greenland, Washington has explicitly demanded that these countries reduce their trade balance with China and subsequently sever economic ties with Beijing in exchange for the U.S. retreating from Trump’s hostile and negative stances toward them.

Until now, the Chinese had not reacted to the neutrality of some countries in the Washington-Beijing trade war. However, the recent statements from China’s Ministry of Commerce serve as a prelude to the deepening and expansion of the tariff war in the near future.

It is no coincidence that many economists view the escalation of economic conflicts between the U.S. and China as the central axis of a global economic war. This war could extend to other dimensions due to radical actions by the main parties to the conflict. Meanwhile, contrary to Trump’s initial assumptions, Washington will suffer losses from both the core and broader context of this all-out war. The explicit warnings issued by economic institutions against the U.S. government’s tariff policies stem from this probable, if not certain, incapacity. These are warnings that Trump, for now, has no ear to hear.