Trump’s countdown calculations in confrontation with BRICS

Following the imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian imports, an executive order was signed that imposes an additional 25% tariff on the same goods due to India’s purchase of oil from Russia—bringing the total to 50%. Following this news, oil prices surged. According to Indian media, the new tariff could increase the country’s oil import costs by up to $11 billion.

Trump has announced that these tariffs will take effect in a few weeks, allowing India and Russia the opportunity to negotiate with the U.S. government regarding these tariffs. However, past experience shows that the U.S. president seeks to extract maximum leverage from the negotiating parties.

It is no coincidence that Moscow and New Delhi have so far shown little interest in these negotiations. The new sanctions could trigger shocks in energy prices and alter global trade routes—similar to what happened in 2022 when oil prices spiked, and Russia signed energy contracts at discounted rates with two of the world’s largest economies to bypass Western sanctions.

Trump’s advisors and senior officials at the U.S. Treasury believe that the 25% secondary tariffs could force India to at least reduce part of its oil trade with Russia. Further sanctions would worsen the situation significantly. Secondary sanctions dramatically increase risk, jeopardize Indian companies’ access to the U.S. financial system, and expose banks, refineries, and shipping companies to serious consequences due to their interconnectedness in global markets. If five million barrels of Russian oil were suddenly removed from the market, oil prices could rise again as countries scramble to find alternative sources. Even recent OPEC production increases, due to capacity constraints and logistical challenges, make it very difficult to replace such a massive volume in the short term.

Beyond these immediate effects, India is likely to pursue official and unofficial methods to circumvent U.S. secondary sanctions rather than replacing Russian oil with oil from other countries. Recently, senior officials from the three main BRICS members (Russia, India, and China) held talks on how to respond to U.S. secondary oil sanctions against Russia. Details of these discussions are not publicly available, but the coordination of New Delhi, Beijing, and Moscow within the BRICS framework—and their development of discreet but creative methods to counter U.S. secondary oil sanctions—will play an important role in safeguarding global oil market security.

What some of Trump’s close advisors fear most is the synergy between the three BRICS countries (India, China, and Russia) in neutralizing the structure of U.S. secondary sanctions on oil and other major global economic issues. Unintentionally, Trump is strengthening this triangle.