Welfare wars: Starmer’s battle for cuts splits the Labour Party

Last-minute concessions, the removal of key provisions, and unprecedented internal dissent not only undermined Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s political standing but also exposed deep fractures within the Labour Party, fueling a growing legitimacy crisis during its first year in power.

Starmer’s Labour government had been pushing to revise the welfare system in a bid to reduce the mounting costs of social spending. The bill — known for months in political circles as the "welfare reform bill" — sparked widespread backlash, especially over proposed changes to the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) for disabled individuals.

The bill passed late Tuesday night with 335 votes in favor and 260 against. However, the passage came amid a wave of discontent, with 49 Labour MPs defying the party whip and voting against it — the highest rebellion under Starmer’s premiership so far, signaling an erosion of party discipline.

The Guardian, in a scathing editorial, noted: “In a desperate attempt to save the bill, Starmer scrapped its most significant component — the disability payment reforms. While the government still aims to cut spending, the bill now stands as a hollow version of its original form.”

Critics on the House floor accused the government of “mismanagement,” “dishonesty,” and attempting to impose austerity “on the backs of the most vulnerable.” One Labour MP quipped sarcastically during the vote: “I stepped out for a banana, and when I came back, the bill had completely changed!”

This retreat not only rendered the legislation toothless but also inflicted damage on Starmer’s political credibility. The Independent described it as “the most severe political blow to the Labour government since taking office,” adding: “The Prime Minister may have won the vote, but he has lost his political legitimacy.”

Recent polls also indicate a dramatic drop in Starmer’s popularity, with right-wing parties gaining ground in key constituencies. Prominent political analyst John Curtice stated that “Starmer has now become the most unpopular elected Prime Minister in modern British history, and his government's legitimacy crisis is deepening rapidly.”

The original welfare reforms were expected to save the Treasury around £5 billion by 2030. But with major rollbacks and the removal of core elements, projections now suggest savings will fall to no more than £2 billion. This shortfall has put unprecedented pressure on the Treasury and sparked growing concern over the likelihood of tax hikes in the autumn budget.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is now facing a multi-billion-pound budget gap. Experts say she must either raise taxes or impose further cuts to public services — a dilemma that could intensify public dissatisfaction with the Labour government.