Trump’s concern over the Midterm Congressional elections

Donald Trump’s approval rating during his second term has, for the first time since his 2024 victory, dropped below the critical 45% threshold, stabilizing at around 44%. This decline in popularity—visible even among Republican voters—shows that the core agenda of his second term, including tariffs and major government restructuring, has failed to expand his support beyond the current polarized political environment.

The main concern among Republican Party leaders today is the shift of part of their voter base away from the party. Polls indicate that a portion of Republican voters—though still small—may soon contribute to increasing the Democratic vote share. This issue could become a serious nightmare for the current ruling party in the 2026 midterm elections and, even more importantly, in the 2028 presidential election.

Just three weeks before his 2024 victory, Trump managed for the first time since spring 2022 to push his approval numbers above 45% and maintain that rating through the year. However, since August 2025, this support has eroded, and following the government shutdown (starting September 21), his approval dropped by four points to 42.3%. Even after the end of the shutdown, Trump’s popularity has not returned above 45%. This decline is a serious warning sign for Republicans, as in the 2018 midterm elections, Trump’s relatively stable approval rating of about 43% resulted in the loss of 40 seats and the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives.

Unlike his first term—when Trump faced major shocks such as the outbreak of COVID-19—the government’s agenda in his second term has been clear from the outset (tariffs, mass dismissal of federal employees, and the “One Big Beautiful Bill”). However, American citizens believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.

Only 36% of Americans believe the country is on the “right track,” a drop of seven points since June. Despite Trump’s promises to lower prices, recent polls show that “inflation and consumer prices” remain the most pressing concern for voters. U.S. tariff revenues have doubled, which in practice functions as a type of progressive tax imposed on ordinary consumers.

Concerns over “jobs” rank second. Statements by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who said that artificial intelligence has increased productivity and therefore reduced the need to hire new graduates, have intensified public anxiety about the future of employment instead of calming it.

More importantly, healthcare—just as in the previous term—has again become a factor dragging the midterm elections off the path desired by Republicans. Trump and his Health Secretary (Edward Kennedy) have been accused of deviating from standard public health frameworks meant to prepare and protect the country against potential future pandemics.

Meanwhile, while Republicans had hoped for tax cuts under the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the proposed reductions in Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have had real negative impacts on working-class families. Some cuts have been postponed until after the elections, but a sharp rise in insurance premiums is already being felt, and current government policies are worsening the problem without offering any compensation plan.

Trump’s strongest—though still relative—approval remains in the area of immigration. However, immigration ranks only seventh in priority among voters overall. With one year remaining until the midterms, Trump still has time to regain some of his lost approval, potentially through proposals such as $2,000 assistance checks. However, the inability of his strict second-term agenda to attract new voters indicates that the path ahead for maintaining Republican control of Congress will be difficult.