From Kathmandu to Delhi and Beijing: Why Nepal’s unrest matters beyond its borders

In recent days, Nepal witnessed widespread demonstrations that eventually led to the dismissal of former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli. The protests against the government’s policies were met with police intervention, resulting in the deaths of dozens of demonstrators during clashes with security forces.

Last Tuesday, protesters set fire to the parliament building and the homes of several prominent politicians. Members of the cabinet resigned, and mounting pressure on the prime minister eventually forced his resignation.

According to Al Jazeera, the recent events have turned this Himalayan nation into the latest boiling pot of political upheaval—following similar movements in Sri Lanka in 2022 and Bangladesh in 2024, both of which led to the downfall of governments in those South Asian countries.

As protests continued, the former prime minister of Nepal announced his resignation, but the demonstrators demanded the dissolution of parliament, new elections, and the formation of an interim government.

However, this was not Nepal’s first encounter with widespread unrest. The country’s modern political history has been marked by student movements, government interventions, and cycles of violence—including a decade-long civil war.

Observers note that although the government’s recent ban dealt a major blow to the protesters, the current movement is built on deep-rooted grievances that have been simmering for years.

Ultimately, the protests in Nepal resulted in the appointment of Sushila Karki as interim prime minister; Karki had previously served as Chief Justice of Nepal’s Supreme Court.

Yet, what is happening in Nepal carries significance far beyond the borders of this landlocked country situated on the southern slopes of the Himalayas. Stretching about 885 kilometers from east to west and about 193 kilometers from north to south, Nepal lies between two regional giants—China to the north and India to the south, east, and west.

Although historically closer to India, Nepal’s foreign alignments have shifted in response to domestic politics. Some analysts point to Sushila Karki as a possible temporary choice. Her political and diplomatic inclinations remain unclear. She is the most acceptable candidate and has a strong chance of leading the next government, though no final decision has been made.

Regardless of who heads the next government in Nepal, both India and China will seek stability and an administration that respects their interests. Nepal has always maintained friendly relations with both of its neighbors, China and India.

Meanwhile, analysts say that Pakistan will also be closely monitoring Nepal’s developments. Compared to India and China, Nepal’s ties with Pakistan have historically been cordial but of limited strategic importance. At times, Nepalese rulers have leveraged their relationship with Pakistan as a reminder to India of their regional options.