France’s Government Collapses

During the vote, 364 lawmakers opposed Bayrou, while only 194 backed him. The vote was initiated at the prime minister’s own request, as he sought approval for a €44 billion austerity package that included the cancellation of two public holidays and a freeze on government spending. But the result far surpassed the 280-vote threshold required to topple the government, ending Bayrou’s tenure after just nine months in power.

Bayrou is now expected to submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday. He becomes the second prime minister in less than a year to be ousted by a no-confidence vote, following Michel Barnier’s downfall last December.

Market jitters and economic crisis

The fall of the French government quickly rattled financial markets. Yields on French government bonds surged above those of Spain, Portugal, and even Greece—once the epicenter of the eurozone debt crisis. At the same time, a possible downgrade of France’s credit rating on Friday looms as a serious threat to the country’s standing in Europe’s economy.

In his speech before the vote, Bayrou struck a grim tone, telling lawmakers: “You have the power to topple the government, but not to erase reality. Expenditures will continue to rise, and the already unbearable debt burden will grow heavier and more costly.” He also admitted that “the social contract with younger generations has been broken.”

Deep-rooted political turmoil

This political instability traces back to President Macron’s controversial decision last year to call snap parliamentary elections after the far-right National Rally scored a sweeping victory in the European Parliament elections. The result was a weakened Macron bloc and strengthened far-right and left-wing forces, leaving parliament fragmented and increasingly volatile.

With Bayrou’s fall, pressure is mounting on Macron to resign. However, the president has stated he intends to serve out his term. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right, has demanded the dissolution of parliament and fresh elections—a move many believe would strengthen her party’s grip while making the legislature even more unstable.

Macron’s limited options

One possible scenario is the formation of a caretaker government until a new prime minister is appointed. Names such as Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin are reportedly at the top of the list. Yet analysts warn that the role has never looked more like a “poisoned chalice.”

Macron’s fundamental problem is that after three failed centrist prime ministers, opposition parties refuse to cooperate. Both the far-right and far-left have declared that if another centrist is nominated, they will immediately table a fresh no-confidence vote. Meanwhile, appointing a right-wing figure would trigger leftist backlash—and vice versa.