A war of missiles and miscalculations: How Iran’s barrage exposed U.S.-Israeli gaps

Various U.S. media sources report that the imposed war waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran has caused both actors to face challenges in maintaining interceptor missile supplies.

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing a senior U.S. official, amid intensified Iranian missile attacks, Israel is facing a severe shortage of key missile defense interceptors, particularly the Arrow system.

The shortage of Arrow interceptors has raised concerns among U.S. officials, who now believe that Israel may have to ration or segment its air defense capabilities.

A source quoted in the report stated: “The system was already under strain.” U.S. and Israeli officials now acknowledge that missiles targeting critical infrastructure have penetrated the defense shield.

According to Middle East Monitor, the Arrow system—jointly developed by the U.S. and Israel—is designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles. However, since Israel’s aggression, Tehran has retaliated with unprecedented intensity.

Adding to the concerns, the U.S. has nearly depleted its regional stockpiles of interceptors after transferring much of them to Israel. The Wall Street Journal points to growing fears in Washington that its own defense capabilities may soon be at risk.

Meanwhile, The Washington Post referenced intelligence assessments indicating that Israel’s current stockpile can only sustain air defense at the intensity of the 12-day war for another 10 to 12 days.

Following the depletion of stockpiles in West Asia in recent months, the U.S. now holds only about 25% of the Patriot missile interceptors required for the Pentagon’s full military programs. This worrying shortfall has led to the suspension of the latest munitions transfers to Ukraine by the U.S. government.

According to The Guardian, the shortage of Patriot missiles has raised serious concerns within the Pentagon about the potential compromise of future U.S. military operations.

Stephen Feinberg, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, authorized a halt in transfers while reviewing where weapons were being sent.

It appears that President Donald Trump recently reversed at least part of this decision. Speaking to reporters before a White House dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said more weapons would be sent to Ukraine—though he did not specify whether this included Patriot systems.

The Trump administration began reviewing the depleted levels of Patriot missiles and other munitions around February, after the U.S. deployed more interceptors to the Middle East to support the military campaign against Yemen’s forces. The review process accelerated thereafter.

The situation worsened further last month when Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting the U.S. to launch nearly 30 Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

The recent decline in available Patriot missiles and other munitions was part of a classified “recommendation memo” from Elbridge Colby, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, outlining several options to conserve weapons and limit further depletion.

Meanwhile, CNN recently reported—citing informed sources—that during Israel’s 12-day imposed war on Iran, the U.S. depleted roughly a quarter of its advanced THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) interceptor stockpile.

In its report titled “U.S. Used About a Quarter of Its Missile Interceptors in Israel-Iran War, Exposing Supply Gaps,” CNN stated that American forces fired over 100—possibly up to 150—THAAD interceptor missiles to counter Tehran’s barrage of ballistic missiles, representing a significant portion of the U.S.’s advanced missile defense reserves.

The report noted that the U.S. has seven THAAD systems, two of which were deployed in the occupied territories during the imposed war. The heavy use of THAAD interceptors in such a short time revealed vulnerabilities in America’s missile defense network and severely depleted a costly asset at a time when U.S. public support for defending Israel is at an all-time low.