Inside the collapse; How Iran outmaneuvered Israel’s missile defenses

In the days following the 12-day war, Israeli analysts and outlets gradually admitted that their layered air defense system failed to intercept Iranian missiles effectively.

Recently, The Wall Street Journal published a report highlighting Iran’s missile capabilities during the war, stating that Iran identified vulnerabilities in Israel’s air defense system and managed to double the effectiveness of its missile attacks.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military announced a change in the leadership of its air defense unit.

Israel Hayom reported that this change came after an investigative report on how Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli defenses.

The former commander of Israel’s air defense system acknowledged the failure and said, "I take full responsibility for all the events and failures we experienced."

Israel Hayom noted that Iran’s systematic exploitation of weaknesses in Israel’s well-known missile defense network during the 12-day war demonstrated that even the most sophisticated air defense systems can be compromised through tactical adaptation.

The increased effectiveness of Iran’s attacks was revealed through comprehensive analysis of missile defense data gathered from think tanks in the occupied territories and Washington.

Iran’s offensive strategy specifically targeted Israel’s multi-layered defense system, which includes:

·         Arrow-3 interceptors for exo-atmospheric threats,

·         Arrow-2 for atmospheric threats,

·         THAAD and David’s Sling for medium-range threats, and

·         Iron Dome for short-range projectiles.

Each layer operates at different altitudes and ranges, forming what missile defense experts have called one of the world’s most comprehensive protective networks.

Iran’s evolving tactics reportedly included the deployment of Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles, which descend at steep angles from outside the Earth’s atmosphere at speeds exceeding Mach 10.

These advanced missiles are equipped with maneuverable, separable warheads designed to evade interception.

An analysis of Israel’s public statements revealed a declining interception rate during the conflict.

The consequences of this war extend beyond immediate damage—several Iranian missiles bypassed Israel’s multi-layered defense and struck strategic targets in the occupied territories.

One such target was the Bazán Oil Company in Haifa. The company stated that the Iranian missile strike on the Haifa Bay Refinery is estimated to have caused nearly $200 million in damages.

Bazán emphasized that this figure is a forward-looking estimate based on current data and plans, noting that recovery operations are complex, and the final compensation figures and total costs remain unclear.

The company reported to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that it has received an initial advance payment of 160 million shekels (approximately $48 million) to begin repairing part of the damage.

Bazán said this prepayment covers the direct damage, and the company is working with a compensation fund to secure additional payments while continuing restoration efforts.

The attack damaged the refinery’s power generation unit, which provides steam and electricity to critical infrastructure. The sudden shutdown caused major operational disruptions. The full cost and compensation levels are still undetermined. Three people were killed, even though they were inside the refinery’s most secure internal chamber, which partially collapsed due to the fire.