The gambler’s grand mistake

The feral President of the United States has committed a grave strategic and calculative blunder by ordering an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities—particularly Fordow. The consequences of this error were swiftly revealed in Iran’s powerful response through Operation Basharat al-Fath.

Before analyzing this blatant miscalculation, it is essential to consider a fundamental principle in the foreign policy of the Trump administration—what may be called the “Unknown Variable Principle”:

In the realm of foreign policy, the identification of unknown variables in any country's strategy is a function of cost-benefit analysis that results in a final quantified judgment. Trump, during his short time back in the White House, has proven fundamentally incapable of accurately gauging this cost-benefit ratio or producing a valid final outcome.

He claimed he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours—but not only did he misjudge the costs and benefits of the situation, he also applied the wrong tools and catalysts to influence the outcome, acting with amateurish delusion.

The same flawed logic applied to his trade-tariff war with China and America’s partnership with the Zionist regime in its war against Yemen’s Ansarullah. In all these cases, there was no alignment between Trump’s abstract assumptions and the concrete outcomes of American action.

Now, Trump is formulating and interpreting a new equation that is far more complex and whose consequences for Washington will be even harsher.

Trump intentionally reneged during mock negotiations. In the third round of indirect talks, he retracted his initial consent to allow industrial-scale uranium enrichment within Iran and instead fixated on "zero enrichment" and the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Simultaneously, he gave a green light to the detested Zionist regime to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities—eventually dragging his own country into direct military confrontation with Iran.

Trump now claims all of these were catalysts to impose a so-called “peace” on Iran. But the facts are clear: Iran will neither accept an imposed peace nor remain indifferent to the recent American attack on the Fordow facility.

Trump is so deeply immersed in his delusions that he refuses to accept even the survival of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure despite his dangerous and self-defeating gamble. However, he will not remain in this madness of illusions forever.

Iran will soon teach the U.S. President how to calculate the "X"—that is, the unknown variables in this strategic equation. By the time this compulsory lesson is over, Trump himself may no longer exist in the political arena to use it as a learning experience for future decisions.

Still, this historical lesson will certainly serve as a negative turning point in global power dynamics. Soon, the American President will realize that brutality, ambiguity, and madness are not effective tools for initiating war or deterring Iran. On the contrary, they lead to the collapse of his entire conceptual framework.

And the destruction of that mental framework will also mean the destruction of Trump’s strategy, the downfall of his warmongering circle, and perhaps their permanent removal from the global equation of power. That day is not far off.