Local elections and the nightmare for Britain’s main parties

The Reform UK Party, established just a few years ago, achieved a stunning upset in a parliamentary by-election, wresting the Runcorn and Helsby constituency in northwest England from Labour by a mere six votes—a seat Labour had won by over 14,000 votes in the general election less than a year ago.

This symbolic victory, described by Farage as a “major moment” in British politics, alongside Reform’s successes in the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral election and securing a decisive majority in Staffordshire County Council, has elevated the party from a fringe force to a serious concern for traditional parties.

A disaster for Starmer’s government; a shock for the Conservatives

The elections, held on Thursday, May 1, and announced on Friday, were the first electoral test for Starmer’s government since its general election victory last year. However, instead of consolidating Labour’s position, signs of eroding public support emerged within less than a year. Losing a constituency considered a Labour stronghold has sparked intense internal criticism of Starmer’s leadership and heightened concerns about the party’s ability to retain its traditional voter base in northern England.

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party, grappling with internal crises, leadership changes, and ideological disputes since its defeat in last year’s general election, also performed poorly, managing to hold ground only in some marginal areas. Analysts believe the Conservatives continue to suffer from the fallout of their 14 years of exhausting governance, with the prospects for rebuilding the party appearing dimmer than ever.

Nigel Farage, former leader of the Brexit Party and a prominent figure in Britain’s populist right, played a central role in the recent campaign, successfully drawing voters disillusioned with the two main parties to Reform. In an interview with Sky News, he stated, “People feel they no longer know what the Prime Minister truly believes in. Our party is now the real opposition in Britain.”

Beyond the populist rhetoric and bold promises—such as opposing immigration, criticizing taxes, and attacking establishment institutions—Reform is gaining a foothold in areas traditionally dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. The victory in Runcorn, a long-time Labour stronghold, is seen by experts as evidence that Farage is targeting not only the right-wing but also the disaffected working-class voter base.

Some analysts argue that the recent election results reflect a protest vote rather than structural support for Reform. However, such protest votes, if repeated nationally, could reshape the UK’s political map. Unlike in the past, Farage is now aiming for executive power and a role in the next government. In his victory speech, he declared, “If you vote for the Conservatives, you’re effectively voting for Labour. Reform is the only real alternative to this vicious cycle.”

Meanwhile, several prominent Labour figures have criticized Starmer for his “silence,” “inaction,” and absence from the recent campaign. Senior Labour MPs, including Diane Abbott and John McDonnell, have called for an urgent review of the government’s economic policies, warning that continuing this trajectory could lead to the rise of the far right.

Reports also indicate a shift of Labour votes toward the Green Party, reflecting dissatisfaction among the party’s progressive base with Starmer’s “conservative” policies on issues like welfare, immigration, and social budgets.

The End of Labour’s honeymoon?

The defeat in Runcorn, by just six votes, may seem narrow, but in political terms, it has been likened to an earthquake that could alter the balance of power for years to come. Signs of strategic weakness, the Prime Minister’s absence from a key constituency, and an excessive focus on political centrism have left even government supporters worried that Starmer is entering a phase of decline far too soon.

On the other hand, Reform, with simple yet resonant promises like ending a “weak Britain,” “restoring authority,” and “deporting illegal immigrants,” is capitalizing on the strategic vacuum left by the two traditional parties. However, the party appears to lack a coherent, reliable plan for governing and is primarily feeding off widespread public discontent.

The recent election results not only exposed the deep crisis within the Conservative Party but also dealt an early blow to Labour’s fledgling government. Amid this, Reform, led by a controversial figure and fueled by populist rhetoric, is filling the political void in public opinion. The question now looming in London is whether this trend will lead to a radical redefinition of the UK’s political landscape or whether, as in the past, the momentary fervor will subside, and the traditional order will prevail.

The answers may become clearer in the coming months and the next general election. What is certain, however, is that the nightmare for Britain’s traditional parties is no longer confined to the minds of analysts—it is now visible at the ballot box.