How SAPTAM can make Iranians richer than oil

Compliance inspection of video surveillance systems installed in public spaces and commercial sectors with national and international standards is recognized as a key strategy for enhancing the economic security of developing countries. The successful experiences of the United Arab Emirates since 2008 and Saudi Arabia since 2024 provide valuable empirical evidence for forecasting SAPTAM’s impact in Iran.

“SAPTAM” (Integrated Surveillance System for Public Premises) was established under regulatory frameworks for monitoring public spaces. Through providing laboratory services, SAPTAM is tasked with assessing the efficiency of surveillance equipment (CCTV) and conducting electronic security inspections in order to issue compliance certificates for businesses and public venues at various levels.

This study, authored by Dr. Mohammad Ghalamchi, CEO of the Ghalamchi Institute for Management Services and Technology Growth and a recognized expert in electronic security, employs international data analysis and economic modeling to present the first quantitative estimate of the economic benefits of this plan in Iran. It explores how the precise and effective functioning of CCTV systems could increase the wealth of each Iranian by USD 5,000 within a decade. While the annual share of oil revenue per Iranian is estimated at around USD 300, the impact of SAPTAM on wealth creation for individuals is significantly greater than that of oil.

Theoretical framework and methodology

The present study uses a modified Cobb–Douglas production function in which the Investment Security Index (S) is introduced as an independent variable:

Y = A . K^α . L^β . S^γ

Where:

• Y: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• S: Investment Security Index, derived from the Economic Freedom Index (EF)
• γ: GDP elasticity with respect to security, empirically estimated between 0.11 and 0.18

The dataset includes panel data from Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia covering the years 2005–2025. Control variables for Iran include oil prices, international sanctions, and population growth rate. Final analysis was conducted using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in Stata 18.

Empirical findings and international experience

• UAE (2008–2023): World Bank data show that the integrated surveillance system contributed to an average annual GDP growth of 0.54% (SD 0.07). According to the Dubai Chamber of Commerce (2021), business security costs fell by 22.4% while FDI inflows rose by 18.7% due to improved electronic security.
• Saudi Arabia (2024–2025): Preliminary data from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) indicate that a system similar to SAPTAM boosted GDP growth by 0.31% (SD 0.12) in its first two years of implementation and reduced business security costs by 16.8%.

Forecast for Iran

Based on econometric modeling and adjustments for Iran-specific variables, the baseline scenario (65% coverage of commercial sectors) suggests:

• An average annual GDP growth boost of 0.55% – translating into an additional 5% cumulative growth over the first decade of implementation.
• A 19.6% reduction in business security costs.
• A 14.2% increase in FDI inflows.

In the optimal scenario (85% coverage with AI integration), the impact could reach:

• 0.68% GDP growth.
• 24% reduction in security costs.

Impact on GDP and economic growth

Full implementation of SAPTAM could increase Iran’s GDP by 2.7–4.3% by 2030, equivalent to USD 48–72 billion (at 2025 prices).

Impact on per capita wealth

Modeling indicates that per capita wealth in Iran would rise by 8.2–12.7% during the first five years. In the baseline scenario, this equals USD 340 (PPP-adjusted), and in the optimal scenario USD 550.

Mechanisms of impact

Three main channels explain SAPTAM’s effect:

• Improvement of 0.38 points in the Ease of Doing Business Index (World Bank metrics).
• 2.1–2.8 hours weekly time savings for small enterprises.
• 25–30% reduction in economic crimes (based on UAE experience).

Implementation considerations and challenges

1.     Initial Investment: Estimated at USD 1.2–1.8 billion. Past CCTV investments in Iran lacked compliance checks, reducing efficiency; SAPTAM ensures targeted, effective returns.

2.     Privacy Concerns: SAPTAM adheres to ISO 29100 standards and Iran’s Data Protection Law, enhancing cybersecurity and preventing exploitation of surveillance systems as tools of infiltration.

3.     Technical Sustainability: Requires resilient supporting infrastructure with high reliability.

Policy recommendations

1.     Public–Private Partnership (PPP): Modeled after the UAE’s success; in Iran, private knowledge-based firms already executed early SAPTAM phases, proving the model’s viability.

2.     AI Integration for Predictive Analytics: Smart Guard services enable real-time, AI-enhanced monitoring, cutting physical security costs tenfold and preventing crises instantly.

3.     ISO 27001 Data Security Framework: Detailed configuration audits and cybersecurity recommendations safeguard businesses and public venues.

Conclusion

Findings show that SAPTAM, with at least 70% sectoral coverage, could add 4.2% to Iran’s GDP and raise per capita wealth by USD 480 (PPP) by 2030. Drawing on regional successes, achieving these goals requires sufficient upfront investment, adherence to technical and privacy standards, and, above all, strong institutional support within Iran.