Kashmir in the line of fire: Will India and Pakistan engage in a military confrontation?

The bloody attack on tourists in Pahalgam has reopened old wounds in Kashmir and brought tense relations between India and Pakistan to the brink of explosion; will the two nuclear powers engage in war amid diplomatic silence?

Diplomatic and security tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad have escalated sharply following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on Tuesday (April 22). The attack, which took place in the Baisaran area near Pahalgam, killed 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, and injured more than 20 others.

Following the terrorist incident, a statement called the Terrorist Resistance Front (TRF) was issued claiming responsibility for the attack. Some believe the group is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The differences between these two neighbors are old, and since the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947, relations between them have always been accompanied by distrust, military clashes, and ideological competition. The long-standing dispute over the state of Jammu and Kashmir has been the main factor in the formation of four wars, dozens of border conflicts, and numerous diplomatic crises. This competition has not only taken on a military nature, but also political, cultural, and economic dimensions, and has led the two countries on a tense path where any provocative event can turn into a full-fledged crisis.

Over the past two decades, tensions such as the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001, the Mumbai attacks in 2008, and the border skirmishes of 2016 and 2019 (which led to airstrikes and the downing of a fighter jet) have all shown that relations between New Delhi and Islamabad are constantly teetering on the edge of crisis. This is despite periodic diplomatic efforts, often stalled by terrorist incidents or political developments in each country.

In such a context, the deadly attack a few days ago in the Pahalgam region has once again reignited the flames of disagreement. Indian officials, citing the connection of the attack to groups based in Pakistan, have launched a wave of retaliatory measures and political threats; actions that have not gone unanswered by Pakistan.

The possible implications of the current escalating tensions between India and Pakistan can be discussed and examined in three formats: bilateral, regional, and international implications.

1. Bilateral Implications (India-Pakistan)

The recent tensions have brought the fragile relations between India and Pakistan to the brink of a complete rupture. The suspension of key treaties such as the “Indus Waters Agreement” and the “Shimla Agreement” means the loss of two important pillars of the medium-term diplomacy of the two countries. Also, the expulsion of diplomats, the closure of official borders, and the cancellation of visas are signs of the beginning of a “new cold war” between the two nuclear neighbors in South Asia. This situation has directly hurt border trade, cultural cooperation, the movement of people, and even sporting events.

2. Regional implications (South Asia)

South Asia, especially neighboring countries such as Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, has always been vulnerable to crises between India and Pakistan. Any instability in relations between the two countries could negatively affect regional security, regional trade, and projects such as China’s Belt and Road or Central Asian energy and transit projects.

3. International consequences of the escalation of the crisis

The international community, especially powers such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union, is concerned about the escalation of the conflict between the two nuclear powers. These tensions are considered not only a direct threat to regional stability, but also to global security. The United States and Britain have issued statements calling for restraint, and China has taken a cautious approach, urging both countries to resolve the differences through dialogue.

Increased military tensions in South Asia could also affect global markets, especially in the energy sector, Asian financial markets, and the shipping insurance industry. On the other hand, these clashes have refocused international attention on the Kashmir issue and may put more pressure on the UN Security Council to formally intervene in this historic dispute.