Israel nearing a ‘Point of No Return’ as key talent exodus accelerates

The economic daily Calcalist published a new report depicting an alarming picture of the expanding emigration wave from the occupied territories.

The study—authored by three prominent Tel Aviv University researchers, Itti Ater, Nittai Bergman, and Doron Zamir—shows that 90,000 Israeli settlers left the occupied Palestinian territories between January 2023 and September 2024, including 50,000 in 2023 and 40,000 in the first nine months of 2024. This comes despite relatively stable migration levels in previous years.

In its Friday report, Calcalist writes that the researchers view this exodus as a “disruption of the migration balance” because, unlike previous waves, the current outflow mainly consists of high-income individuals, young people, specialists, and those with critical human capital—the very groups that form the backbone of Israel’s skilled labor force.

According to the newspaper, the departure of this population within less than two years has cost the Israeli treasury 1.5 billion shekels (around 395 million dollars) in lost income tax revenue—losses that, experts say, would not have occurred annually had these individuals remained.

Additional indirect losses—such as reduced revenue from VAT, corporate taxes, and other economic contributions—were not included in the calculation.

Qualitative shifts in who is leaving

The study uses a new analytical method to distinguish between “genuine emigrants” and “temporary travelers,” a method that Calcalist says undermines cabinet claims that most departures were among immigrants from former Soviet republics.

Findings indicate that the proportion of high-income individuals among emigrants has risen from 25% to more than one-third. This means Israel is losing crucial groups such as engineers, high-tech professionals, self-employed specialists, senior managers in key economic sectors, and physicians.

Another part of the report notes that 875 Israeli doctors have left the occupied territories since 2023; after accounting for returns, the net loss is 481 physicians.

Calcalist describes this trend as “deeply concerning,” given that most were full-time specialist doctors—whose departure adds severe strain to a healthcare system already suffering from acute staff shortages.

According to the paper, Israel has also lost 19,000 university graduates, 6,600 science and engineering graduates, and 633 PhD holders, resulting in a net loss of 224 researchers. More than 3,000 engineers have emigrated, with a net loss of 2,330 engineers.

Calcalist warns that given Israel’s heavy dependence on the high-tech sector, these numbers point to a gradual collapse of the innovation and research infrastructure—the source of Israel’s competitive advantage.

Age profile of emigrants

More than 75% of emigrants are under 40, but the report warns that the most troubling increase is among emigrants over 40—individuals with vital, irreplaceable expertise in key sectors of the economy. The Tel Aviv University researchers describe this as a “dangerous qualitative shift.”

Warnings of a ‘Point of No Return’

In the final section of the report, Calcalist warns that the real danger lies not in the current situation but in the direction the trend is heading.

According to the researchers: “Israel depends on a limited and concentrated pool of human capital to maintain the functioning of its vital systems. The departure of small but key groups can push the economy into an irreversible downward spiral.”

They warn that once the point of no return is crossed, structural damage to the economy will no longer be repairable—and the consequences could lead to the destruction of Israel’s productive and innovative capacity.