A regime at the breaking point: How Netanyahu weaponizes Israel’s turmoil

The internal crisis in the occupied territories is no longer merely a set of short-lived disputes and clashes over marginal security issues between various political factions; it has become a central test that reveals important strategic trends.

The Israeli regime is experiencing one of its most critical and sensitive periods in recent decades—a phase in which external and internal interests are intertwined, and American and international pressures and positions are tied to profound political transformations within the structural framework of the Israeli regime.

At the heart of this stage is Netanyahu himself, who behaves as though his political survival is synonymous with the survival of the Israeli regime. He faces multiple social, political, and economic challenges, along with unprecedented international and American pressure that is intensifying ahead of the October 2026 elections.

According to Al-Mayadeen, what is happening today in the occupied territories is not crisis management, but rather an attempt to reshape the rules of the political game in Netanyahu’s favor. His interests are intertwined with the risks of the upcoming electoral battle, all while facing mounting pressure from the U.S. administration, declining domestic political popularity, and electoral and legal threats that could determine his political fate.

What the Israeli newspaper Haaretz recently revealed confirms that the current confrontation in the occupied territories is no longer merely a security standoff but has turned into a multi-layered battle.

Netanyahu’s interests—driven by his obsession with clinging to power—take precedence over every other consideration. After the elections, such a situation will only lead to a more fragmented and tense Israeli regime, both domestically and internationally.

As the October elections draw closer, several key issues and tools have come into focus, including the financial agendas of extremist parties, the question of how to contain the far right, and how to manage relations with Washington.

Every decision made today in the occupied territories is shaped by Netanyahu’s calculations for political survival until that date—or more precisely, by his need to secure a political-legal arrangement that guarantees his future.

Following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation and the subsequent regional shifts, Netanyahu found himself surrounded on two fronts: externally, constrained by American and international positions amid explicit demands for clear political decisions on critical issues such as the war in Gaza and other fronts; and internally, where trust between him and other domestic factions is eroding, and divisions among the Israeli far right, the military establishment, the opposition, and settler groups are deepening.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu—rather than acting as the head of a ruling coalition seeking to craft a comprehensive strategy—behaves as a self-serving political actor searching for ways to turn every crisis he faces into an opportunity for political survival.

The presence of U.S. President Donald Trump casts a shadow over U.S.–Israeli relations and adds complexity. Looking at Trump and his administration shows how Netanyahu attempted to strike a balance to secure his political future: enough compliance with Washington to maintain ongoing military and political support, but without offering any significant concessions that could anger the Israeli far right or collapse his fragile coalition.

Clear signs indicate that Netanyahu is now prepared to adjust his positions on issues he previously rejected—or, more precisely, avoided discussing. Yet at this stage, he does so with a degree of flexibility born of necessity.

This does not reflect a strategic shift in his positions, but rather conforms to the logic of political survival. His goal is to offer concessions to the U.S.—not because they benefit the Israeli regime, but because he realizes that losing American support would immediately mean the collapse of his coalition and possibly the reopening of his legal cases.

Anyone observing the internal Israeli scene will reach an immediate and clear conclusion: the Israeli regime is in a state of constant tension and appears even more divided and directionless than before the Gaza war.

The legal crisis Netanyahu triggered two years ago remains unresolved; the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews remains a ticking time bomb; meanwhile, the influence of the far right is rising. This faction is no longer a marginal force but an integral part of the decision-making process.

The upcoming October 2026 elections represent a life-or-death battle—especially for Netanyahu. As these elections approach, it has become clear that every decision in the occupied territories is governed by the equation of survival until that date.

All political tools are part of a plan whose main goal is to preserve the coalition until the elections—or to reach an agreement that allows Netanyahu to end his political career without going to prison, possibly through a future pardon.

The Israeli regime approaches the elections more internally divided, weakened, and internationally isolated than before.

Amid this crisis, Netanyahu—acting as a key political figure—exploits all contradictions and leverages these divisions. He maneuvers between internal and external pressures, and domestic calculations are inseparable from all of this.

However, in doing so, he is not steering Israel toward any long-term or strategic vision, but toward a short-sighted and immediate goal: ensuring Netanyahu’s continued presence at the top of the political hierarchy in the occupied territories.

This moment reveals a fundamental conclusion: the Israeli regime today is not engaged in a normal political struggle but is trapped in a vortex of self-definition.