Strategic miscalculation: How Trump’s Israel policy threatens GOP electoral prospects

Recent developments surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein sexual abuse case — in which Trump’s name has also surfaced — have challenged the long‑held perception that his relationship with the Republican Party is unshakable.

In this context, The Hill reported that Trump loyalists, from Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to former White House strategist Steve Bannon and conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, have recently criticized the U.S. president not only over revelations related to the Epstein case but also over cuts to the Medicaid program under the guise of his so‑called “big, beautiful” tax‑cut plan.

Yet new polls indicate that other issues could also erode Trump’s support — particularly among independent voters, whose backing Republicans will need to win upcoming elections.

A new YouGov survey commissioned by the Center for Political and Economic Research found that, despite initial Republican support for Trump’s military strike against Iran, his continued backing of Israel’s war against Iran could pose a serious political threat to him.

The economic fallout of entering a broader conflict — and skepticism toward the justifications for participating in such wars — has generated strong opposition among independent voters. This group, which makes up about one‑third of the electorate, is now evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. Should a key issue in the election push independents decisively in one direction, it could shift the outcome entirely.

The YouGov survey found that a clear majority of voters — 65% — said they would blame Trump if U.S. military intervention drove gasoline prices up to $6 per gallon. Among independent voters, 69% agreed.

When respondents were told that economists expect mortgage interest rates to rise in the event of military intervention — adding over $100,000 to the lifetime cost of an average home — 72% said they opposed U.S. military action, with two‑thirds strongly opposed.

Trump rose to power by claiming that Americans had lost trust in their institutions — from regulatory bodies and health experts to the mainstream media. Yet polling shows he is now facing serious accusations from within his own base for undermining public trust and yielding to wealthy campaign donors who unconditionally support Israeli policies — policies that millions of voters believe are fundamentally wrong.

The survey also found that 63% of respondents are concerned that Trump’s decision to attack Iran could be influenced by his campaign donors — a concern particularly strong among independents. Two‑thirds of voters, including one‑third of Republicans, said that involvement in a war between Israel and Iran would contradict Trump’s central “America First” promise.