Moscow’s ultimatum: No peace without NATO guarantees

Russia demands international recognition of its annexation of Crimea and four occupied Ukrainian regions. Ukraine, however, opposes Russian sovereignty over any part of its territory.

Meanwhile, American and European media avoid highlighting Putin’s primary, unspoken condition for a ceasefire: halting NATO’s eastward expansion. In clearer terms, Western media continue to obscure NATO’s role as the main instigator of the crisis.

NATO’s insistence on expanding eastward triggered the Russia-Ukraine war. This scenario could repeat with Georgia and Moldova, even if Ukraine guarantees non-membership in NATO. Russian authorities seek assurances to curb NATO’s ambitions for years, even decades, ahead. In contrast, Trump is determined to end the Ukraine war to claim a foreign policy achievement.

Moscow’s ceasefire conditions

During the latest Istanbul talks, Russian representatives stated Moscow would only agree to end the war if Ukraine cedes more territory and reduces its military. Reuters reported Putin’s conditions, noting Moscow’s refusal to compromise on its long-term war objectives.

Ukraine has repeatedly rejected these terms as tantamount to “Kyiv’s complete surrender.” Beyond formally annexing Crimea (seemingly accepted by Ukraine), Russia demands the separation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson from Ukrainian control.

The main dispute centers on “post-ceasefire guarantees.” U.S. and Ukrainian officials suggest Kyiv, particularly President Zelenskyy, can provide these assurances alone. However, the Kremlin insists that NATO must offer significant guarantees to Moscow. Putin has even stated he has no intention of meeting Zelenskyy to negotiate an end to the war.

Negotiations without real progress

During the Istanbul ceasefire talks, superficial agreements were reached. Both sides agreed to continue prisoner exchanges, including wounded and young captives. The second Istanbul meeting also approved the repatriation of 6,000 Russian soldiers’ bodies. However, no progress was made toward a ceasefire.

Ukrainian officials claim key peace issues can only be resolved at the presidential level, but Russian authorities argue the conflict is not merely a “war between two nations” but one where NATO prominently features. It is evident that without NATO’s support for Kyiv, the war would have ended quickly.

Erdogan: Mediator or part of the dispute?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope for a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in Turkey. However, Western media acknowledge that Putin is skeptical of Turkey’s mediation due to its NATO membership and ties to the alliance.

Despite this, Turkey maintains stabler relations with Russia compared to other NATO members. Notably, Erdogan, driven by geopolitical challenges from the Ukraine war and a desire for foreign policy achievements, has avoided focusing on the war’s root cause: NATO’s expansionism.

Russia’s proposed memorandum

Vladimir Medinsky, head of Russia’s negotiating team, announced that during the Istanbul talks, Russia presented Ukraine with a proposed memorandum outlining ceasefire terms. The state-run Interfax agency published the text, addressing the war that began with Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

The memorandum demands international recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and four other Ukrainian regions Moscow claims. Russia also requires Ukraine to withdraw forces from these areas, commit to “neutrality,” and abandon NATO membership aspirations. Additionally, Russia insists the Russian language be recognized as an official language in Ukraine and that “glorification of Nazism” be legally banned—a claim Ukraine denies.

Conflicting roadmaps

The stark differences between Ukraine and Russia’s roadmaps in the Istanbul talks have minimized the possibility of compromise. Beyond Crimea, annexed in 2014, Russia now controls all of Luhansk and over 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. According to a Ukrainian roadmap seen by Reuters, Kyiv opposes any post-peace military limitations or international recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories.

Russia, however, seeks concrete guarantees for a permanent ceasefire, prioritizing two key conditions: Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO and the annexation of contested regions. So far, Trump’s efforts to find common ground have failed, as have Turkey and Erdogan’s mediation attempts.