Why does Trump hate the Morgan Institute?!

The realization of some recent predictions by the American institute J.P. Morgan regarding Donald Trump’s tariff policies has not led the White House to reduce tariff tensions but has instead fueled anger from the U.S. Treasury Department and Trump himself toward the institute.

The American financial and banking services company J.P. Morgan, in a report published a few weeks ago, warned that due to the tariff policies announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, the country’s economy will face negative growth, resulting in a recession in the United States this year.

This explicit warning has caused many small and large investors on Wall Street to view their country’s commercial future with pessimism. Stock market indices during the first quarter of 2025 (from January to March) indicate that this issue has influenced the behavior of market participants.

One of the main reasons many American citizens heed J.P. Morgan’s claims is the institute’s track record in predicting certain economic and commercial crises in the United States. The institute’s long history and credibility have made its fundamental analyses of the stock market more relevant than ever to American citizens and Wall Street investors.

J.P. Morgan is a multinational American financial and banking services company with a 225-year history. The institute was formed through the merger of numerous banks and financial service companies, but its current form resulted from the merger of Chemical Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank, followed by their acquisition by J.P. Morgan & Co., and the eventual consolidation of all three institutions at the beginning of the 20th century.

Moreover, J.P. Morgan Chase is currently considered the largest bank in the United States, and its policies and fundamental analyses play a significant role in shaping the outlook for specific decisions by American politicians in the realms of economics and politics.

J.P. Morgan experts state that the broader contextual impacts of the U.S. tariff war with other international actors, particularly China, are far more significant than its direct effects. This means that while the U.S. government may adjust the behavior of certain actors to align with its primary goal of reducing the trade balance through commercial and tariff policies, it will not be able to predict competitors’ strategies or control the psychological and economic effects on the behavior of consumers and investors within the United States.

Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan’s chief economist, explicitly stated in this regard: “We now forecast that the country’s GDP will contract under the pressure of tariffs, and contrary to our previous prediction of 1.3% growth, we expect a negative growth of 0.3% for the entire year. This anticipated contraction in economic activity is expected to lead to reduced hiring and ultimately an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3%.”

One of the key factors in J.P. Morgan’s forecast is the erratic and unpredictable trend in the stock market, where trading has lost its technical patterns due to the recent tariff war, and political events directly impact markets instead of being a function of broader market policies.

The critical point is that, alongside J.P. Morgan Chase’s stance on the decline of U.S. economic power in 2025, other major banks have also revised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth this year. For example, Barclays Bank announced that it expects the U.S. economy to contract in 2025. Citibank also reduced its growth forecast for this year to just 0.1%. However, such predictions and calculations have not led to a fundamental shift in Trump’s approach to the trade war.