Reverse guarantees in Kyiv!
Ukrainian authorities have requested that NATO leaders act as a "peace guarantor" in any ceasefire agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, ensuring no future wars erupt between the two sides. This demand comes despite the fact that the primary cause of the Ukraine war was NATO’s insistence on expanding its security-military alliance eastward. In other words, Ukraine is asking the main instigator of the recent conflict to guarantee long-term peace and stability in the country!
This clear contradiction stems from the flawed understanding of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and other officials regarding the root causes of the current war. Ukraine has insisted that its potential NATO membership should not be ruled out. In contrast, Russia demands guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that NATO’s eastward expansion be halted entirely. Specifically, NATO must commit to permanently excluding Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia from membership.
In February 2022, in response to the West’s push for Russia’s strategic encirclement through NATO’s eastward expansion, Putin ordered a military invasion of Ukraine. This followed three years of conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Currently, Russia controls about one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory.
Under these circumstances, NATO is hardly a reliable actor or dependable ally for Ukraine in potential peace negotiations. If NATO were truly a guarantor of Ukraine’s security, it would not have turned the country into a bloody battlefield in its confrontation with Moscow. Yet, this is precisely what has happened, with NATO complicit in both sparking and prolonging the conflict.
It appears that no ceasefire agreement between Kyiv and Moscow will be reached until the Kremlin secures the comprehensive guarantees it seeks regarding NATO’s eastward expansion. Russian sources indicate that if Putin sees tactical opportunities on the battlefield, Russia will continue its advance in Ukraine. The Kremlin believes Russia can sustain the war for years, regardless of economic pressures.
Moreover, Putin is now less inclined to compromise and remains steadfast in his official stance on fully annexing four eastern Ukrainian regions. Russia insists that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and withdraw its forces from all four regions Russia claims as its own. However, NATO’s persistence in prolonging the war has hardened Russia’s preconditions for a ceasefire, now including a NATO guarantee against eastward expansion.
It should not be forgotten that the battlefield currently favors Russia. In addition to Crimea, annexed in 2014, Russia now controls all of Luhansk, over 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as well as parts of Kharkiv and Sumy, while encircling Dnipro.