From diplomacy to deals: Japan’s bold move for central Asia’s resources

The full resolution of border disputes in Central Asia over the past two months has led to a fundamental shift in Japan’s approach to this geopolitically important region.

After two decades of focusing on “soft power” initiatives, Tokyo now appears to be seeking to gain a tangible stake in the economies of Central Asian countries, particularly in exploiting their rich natural resources. This shift in strategy, however, has the potential to put Japan at odds with the interests of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, the two dominant foreign powers in the region.

Two decades of focus on soft power

Since 2004, Japan has been working with regional countries to establish the “Central Asia + Japan” dialogue platform. The platform, initiated by Tokyo and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (then Foreign Minister and current President of Kazakhstan), provided a platform for regular meetings at the ministerial and deputy ministerial levels and advancing cooperation.

Within the framework of these discussions, Japan has provided significant financial assistance to regional countries in the form of project financing, development loans (such as a multi-hundred-million-dollar loan to Uzbekistan in 2024 for economic reforms), and grants (such as a $42.5 million investment in Tajikistan in 2023-24 to implement road construction, solar energy, Dushanbe airport improvements, and scholarships).

While these measures have increased Japan’s political and cultural influence, they have not resulted in a significant economic footprint. (The summit, scheduled for 2024, was canceled due to Japan’s domestic issues.)

Great power wariness and post-stability turn

During this period, Japan generally avoided engaging in direct economic competition with other powers active in Central Asia, and its soft power activities were often seen as complementary to the efforts of others.

The only exception was the rise in tensions with China due to Beijing’s growing assertiveness and expanding economic influence in the region, which Tokyo saw as a geopolitical threat, although Japan’s countermeasures did little to slow China’s advance.

One of the main reasons for Tokyo’s caution in the past was concern about instability in Central Asia and its negative impact on potential investments. However, this major obstacle has been largely removed with the signing of border agreements, first between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and then a comprehensive regional agreement on March 31, 2025, which ended decades of territorial disputes.

Japan, perhaps more than any other power, seems to see this development as an “opening of doors” for expanding its role in Central Asia, one that is no longer limited to soft power but also includes access for Japanese companies to the region’s vast natural resources.

Tokyo’s new steps and the regional response

In recent weeks, Tokyo has taken practical steps to explore the possibility of increasing its economic involvement in the region, holding meetings between Japanese companies and Central Asian governments.

Central Asian governments appear to welcome this development, seeing Japan as a new option to balance against their other foreign “partners.” However, they continue to emphasize the need to continue Japan’s effective soft power programs (although these programs are still smaller in scale than those of China and Russia).

The most prominent manifestation of this shift in approach was the official visit to Japan by Turkmen President Berdimuhamedow two weeks ago. During the visit, in addition to the opening of a trade fair and high-level meetings (with the Prime Minister and the Emperor), important discussions were held on expanding trade and increasing Japanese investment in Turkmenistan’s energy sector.

The choice of Turkmenistan as the first destination may be due to the country’s relative isolation in recent years (due to its policy of neutrality) and, as a result, the existence of more opportunities for new players such as Japan.

Japan has also recently expanded its economic relations with four other countries in the region, but with less fanfare. This cautious approach is likely due to calculations by Tokyo and the Central Asian capitals to avoid provoking possible reactions from China and Russia.

Regional concerns and cautious Japanese moves

The recent meeting of the “Central Asia + China” platform in Astana and the security statement of Kyrgyz officials reflect existing sensitivities. At the Astana meeting, Beijing emphasized the importance of its role and called for its relations with the region not to be threatened (possibly by new actors such as Japan). Kyrgyz officials also spoke of fears that Moscow might exploit external factors (such as Japan’s increased presence) to destabilize the region (to divert attention from the war in Ukraine).

These concerns (Russia’s concern about external influence and China’s concern about overtaking its competitors) are also part of the calculations of Central Asian capitals. As a result, Japan is expected to remain cautious in the near future. Still, given its strong desire to access Central Asia’s natural resources in the new context of regional stability, it will continue to “test the waters” and gradually expand its economic influence.