One decision, dozens of warnings

The warnings issued by official and unofficial institutions in the United States regarding the tariff war between Washington and other international players are growing increasingly serious by the moment. The core of these warnings lies in Trump’s failure to effectively manage the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of this all-out economic battle.

Part of the concern stems from the White House’s inability to predict the nature and scope of other countries’ responses to Trump’s economic protectionism. Another part relates to the lack of support from American private companies and public opinion for this unilateral economic war.

Recently, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned about the impacts of the trade war and rising tariffs, stating that these actions could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth. A similar warning was issued by JPMorgan to the White House, casting serious doubts and challenges on the overall economic growth of the U.S. in 2025.

Most analysts believe that the consequences of tariff increases will be far greater than anticipated, with economic impacts significantly exceeding expectations. Available evidence, including data published in the first quarter of this year (2025), indicates that U.S. economic growth in the first quarter was slower than the previous year. Temporary inflation spikes in the U.S., followed by economic recession, are among the consequences of this economic war.

What is clear is that Trump, at least for now, has no intention of backing down in the face of criticism over this economic war. If this trend continues, inflationary effects may persist, requiring the Federal Reserve to take measures to prevent these price increases from becoming a sustained trend. However, the key question is whether the Federal Reserve has the capacity for such policymaking and crisis management (in the event of inflation or recession) given the widespread public skepticism in the U.S. toward Trump’s tariff policies.

The phenomenon currently causing the greatest concern among American economists is “economic uncertainty.” Major U.S. banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, despite reporting significant profits, continue to highlight market uncertainty. This uncertainty has called into question many previous forecasts about the trajectory of U.S. economic growth.

The impact on the global economy is undeniable. According to a recent World Trade Organization report, Trump’s trade war will negatively affect the global economy, with global GDP growth projected to reach only 2.2% this year, lower than previous forecasts. Currently, investors are still awaiting new information from the White House that might indicate changes in trade policies, but no such signal has been communicated by the U.S. Department of Commerce thus far.