Who are the next victims of Trump’s chess game?

As predicted, Mike Waltz, Trump’s National Security Advisor, has been sacked. Waltz’s political tenure lasted less than four months! It is now clear to all that the U.S. President, as in his first term, has no qualms about reshuffling his administration’s pawns and appointees.

During Trump’s first term, within a year and a half, significant changes occurred in U.S. security and foreign policy: Rex Tillerson, James Mattis, and H.R. McMaster—Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Advisor, respectively—were dismissed, replaced by Mike Pompeo, Mark Esper, and John Bolton.

In other words, by the end of 2017, Trump shifted his foreign policy from the traditional conservative model (followed by establishment Republicans) to an outright aggressive approach toward other countries and actors in the international system.

A repeated experience!

Now, Trump has executed his administration’s first dismissal far earlier than expected! He viewed Mike Waltz as a major obstacle to achieving his goals in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and the Ukraine war. This prompted Trump’s Vice President, JD Vance, to urge him to swiftly initiate Waltz’s replacement.

The issue of Waltz’s forced resignation had been discussed in the White House for about a month, and it has now come to fruition. The Wall Street Journal, explaining the reasons behind Waltz’s forced resignation, stated: “Waltz held hardline views on Iran and Ukraine and frequently clashed with other White House officials on these issues. Sources say Waltz was sidelined in discussions on key matters, particularly the start of nuclear talks with Iran.”

Waltz’s dismissal is the starkest warning possible to two other White House figures: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth! These two politicians, whom Trump has privately accused of obstructing what he sees as his pragmatic foreign policy, are viewed by him as speed bumps in resolving sensitive foreign policy issues.

It should not be forgotten that Trump’s frustration with his two secretaries does not stem from political rationality but from his first-term experience, where figures like Pompeo and Bolton created costly challenges. Now, he is compelled to act more cautiously. In this equation, it is undoubtedly difficult for figures like Hegseth and Rubio to align with the behavioral and decision-making models of the Trump-Musk axis.

Warning to Hegseth

Waltz’s exit from the National Security Advisor role has sounded the alarm for the U.S. Secretary of Defense as well. Protests against Pete Hegseth’s leadership of the Pentagon are growing daily, not only from Democrats but also from some of Trump’s fellow Republicans. It appears that Hegseth, who barely secured Senate confirmation for this critical role, must prepare for an official exit from the White House.

Although Trump has publicly expressed support for Hegseth, political and military analysts in the U.S. are well aware that Trump’s promises to keep his allies in power are far from guaranteed! It seems that Trump’s first-term experience is repeating itself, and Hegseth, like his counterpart James Mattis at the time, will have a short tenure at the Pentagon.

James Norman Mattis, a U.S. military figure and former official in Trump’s first administration, served as Secretary of Defense from January 26, 2017, to December 2018, resigning after political disagreements with Trump.

Hegseth is now following a similar path, with the difference being that recent gaffes have paved the way for his swift dismissal by Trump. Recently, The New York Times reported, citing sources, that Pete Hegseth shared “sensitive information about U.S. military operations” against Yemen on the Signal messaging app.

This report has bolstered the arguments of those initially opposed to Hegseth’s Pentagon role, asserting that the current Pentagon chief is unfamiliar with the basic requirements of the position, which could create crises for Washington.

Thus, Trump has the necessary pretext to dismiss Hegseth, and the Secretary of Defense is fully aware of this. Notably, Jennifer Hegseth, a former Fox News producer and Pete Hegseth’s wife, who is not a Pentagon employee, has faced criticism for accompanying him to sensitive meetings with foreign military officials. Hegseth has dismissed these criticisms as media hype, but evidence suggests Trump is seriously considering his dismissal. The same applies to Marco Rubio.

Rubio has little margin of safety

Marco Rubio also enjoys a very narrow margin of safety in this critical arena. He does not rule out repeating the experience of Rex Tillerson, the Secretary of State in Trump’s first administration. However, there are two key differences between the dismissals in Trump’s first and second terms: First, the pace of dismissals in the current administration is faster than in his first term. Second, in 2018, Trump sidelined traditional Republicans in favor of neoconservatives and Tea Party figures, whereas today, he is taking the opposite approach.