Zelensky’s empty hands in The Hague

Just as Russian forces are entrenched 300 kilometers from Kyiv and the battlefield situation is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukrainians, the Ukrainian president had pinned special hopes on the NATO summit in The Hague. Zelensky had imagined that during this meeting, he could secure maximum U.S. support in the current war in exchange for NATO members agreeing to a significant increase in collective defense spending—something that had been strongly demanded of them during Trump’s presidency.

However, like many of Zelensky’s idealistic calculations, this one also failed. Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, attended a dinner with Dutch King Willem-Alexander and met with Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit. Yet, unlike last year, he was not present at the formal North Atlantic Council session at the heads-of-state level. This in itself shows that Trump no longer has any real concern about "arming Ukraine's hands" in the war against Russia.

The matter of "irreversible guarantees" by NATO members to Ukraine has also become clearer than ever. Ukraine essentially has no real place within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. At last year’s NATO summit during Biden’s presidency, Ukraine was given so-called "irreversible guarantees" on its path to NATO membership, with leaders declaring Ukraine was on an "unbreakable bridge" toward joining the alliance. But Jason Israel, former member of the National Security Council under Biden, told Euronews:

“Trump from the very beginning wanted to destroy that ‘unbreakable bridge.’ If I were in the Ukrainians' place, I’d be deeply worried about the current trajectory.”

This concern is not just due to Washington’s instrumental view of Ukraine and Zelensky’s government. Some European NATO members—such as Hungary and Spain—are also strongly opposed to Kyiv joining the Atlantic alliance.

At the recent summit in The Hague, Zelensky received a clear message: Kyiv no longer holds relevance in the transatlantic military-security deals. In the near future, this reality could lead Ukraine to make greater concessions to Russia in ceasefire negotiations. Trump has no qualms about part of Ukrainian territory being annexed by Russia or Ukraine's NATO path being permanently blocked.

According to reports, the U.S. is no longer supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons as it did under Biden—though it continues to provide vital intelligence. The recent summit in The Hague has not changed this trend.